The U.S. National Institute on Aging, together with international colleagues, found that elevated levels of the GDF15 protein in the blood may predict the development of dementia decades before the first symptoms appear.
People with higher GDF15 levels were significantly more likely to develop dementia, especially its vascular form. The clearest result was seen among middle-aged people: a twofold increase in the protein’s concentration was associated with about a 55% higher risk of dementia over the following twenty years. The link remained even after accounting for age, sex, and comorbidities.
Laboratory experiments showed that GDF15 can alter immune cell function and affect metabolism and antiviral defense, which could potentially contribute to damage in nerve tissue. At the same time, the protein is produced mainly outside the brain, including in the kidneys and bladder.
GDF15 has long been known to researchers. Its levels rise in kidney disease, inflammatory conditions, some forms of cancer, and even severe morning sickness during pregnancy. The new study suggests that this protein may also reflect processes linked to aging. Its concentration gradually increases with both chronological and biological age, especially in men. For now, it appears to be one of the most promising biomarkers for early identification of dementia risk through a simple blood test, when preventive measures may be most effective.
